A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
